Introduction
In this analysis, I aim to determine the market impact of several economic news releases on July 1, 2024, focusing on the S&P 500.
Key Observations
Economic News Releases
Several significant economic news releases occurred on this day:
- 9:45 AM: USD Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 (previous: 51.7, expected: 51.7)
- 10:00 AM: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 (previous: 49.2, expected: 48.7)
- 10:00 AM: USD ISM Manufacturing Prices: 52.1 (previous: 55.8, expected: 57.0)
- 10:00 AM: USD Construction Spending m/m
ICT Strategy (Inner Circle Trading)
According to the ICT strategy, the “silver bullet” times for trading are between 3-4 AM, 10-11 AM, and 2-3 PM New York time. If significant economic news is released during these times, the trading window can shift by an hour. The silver bullet strategy suggests these times due to high trading volumes, offering good opportunities for FVG-based trading, considering liquidity levels.
Quarterly Theory
As shown on the Quarterly Theory diagram, the height of the 3-hour candle matches the 2-hour candle. The Bookmap heatmap indicates high volume limit orders above this level, while in the opposite direction, the diagram shows almost no activity at the marked time.
Footprint Diagram
Note that the time zone on the footprint diagram is still shifted. Subtract one hour to get the correct New York time.
Delta Change Observations
At 3:03, it is interesting to observe the delta change value. This value shows the delta change of the previous candle. At this time, we see that the price rejects the previous level with a higher delta change, indicating a decreasing trend.
Notable Candle Observations
At 4:39 and 4:51, we notice positive absorption within bearish candles. This observation suggests a further decrease in price. I will revisit the price movements around the news events later.
Bookmap Analysis
In the Bookmap analysis, it is evident that there is an enormous amount of red-colored limit sell orders above the 5541 price level. Below this level, the heatmap shows almost no activity, indicating a lack of buying interest. The price is currently at the first VWAP standard deviation, suggesting it is significantly overvalued.
Conclusion
Based on the analysis, including delta shifts, ICT strategy times, and Bookmap observations, we can conclude that the market shows a tendency towards a decreasing trend, especially highlighted by the significant delta changes and absorption levels noted. The Bookmap analysis further supports this with the significant sell orders above 5541 and the price being at an overvalued level according to the VWAP standard deviation.
